PREDICTIVE ESTIMATE OF CHANGES IN ELECTORAL PREFERENCES BETWEEN PARTIES TO DEFINE THE ELECTION FOR GOVERNOR IN MICHOACAN IN JUNE 2015 BY INTEGRATING DIFFERENT HISTORICAL AND NATIONAL OPINION POLLS DATA USING THE METHODOLOGY OF THE EXPECTED

Abstract

The next process of elections for governor in Michoacan is an important event as it is performed after special periods where governments have failed to complete their duties for various reasons, getting to have several officials of the State Government, addition two candidates repeated their aspirations and who participated in 2011 and 2015, making them potential voters have very well identified, PAN and PRD representatives, thereby creating a scene of strife closed and subject to any of them could make a distraction to harness that percentage of voters who still have no decision or some disenchantment within their own teams, traditionally a process is estimated only surveys, but in this research paper are considered data from the last two elections that have occurred in the state of Michoacan (State located in the west of Mexico) in the Governor election 2007 and 2011, thereby creating interesting analysis and why not even debate scenarios, work surely serve as a reference for consulting election campaign of candidates. In later times, by the type of methodology as practical, quick and economically feasible to implement for any electoral political organization.