EXPLORING THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL MARKETSUSINGTETRAD PC ALGORITHM

Abstract

Crude oil price dynamics determines the order of the world oil market in which OPEC and Non OPECcountriesplays major role as exporters and importers. The co-integration and information flow of crude oil price betweenthese groups of countries is helpful in understanding the oil price dynamics in terms of oil rich and oil dependent countries. In this empirical study we explored whether or not the selected OPEC and non OPEC countries arecointegrated, if so what kind of causal information implies between each other and country’s dependence or independence in terms of price giver or price taker. Econometrics tools and causal data analysis software is usedinthe analysis of oil price time series data.