DOES BJP’s LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN UP-ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS2017GUARANTEES ITS VICTORY IN 2019 GENERAL ELECTIONS? – ACRITICALREVIEW

Abstract

BJP won with a three-fourth majority in Uttar Pradesh, garnering about 40 per cent of the total votes polledinAssembly Elections 2017. SP, Congress and BSP put together got around 50% votes. It is therefore clear that
a Grand Alliance of SP, BSP and Congress could have easily routed BJP in UP. Muslimvote got dividedbetween SP(29%) and BSP(18%), (total 47%), letting BJP win easily with 39% votes in the 59 MuslimDominated Constituencies. Similarly, among the 85 reserved seats in the state, BJP outflanked all other partiesby getting 40% of the votes with BSP, SP & Congress got 24%, 19% & 7% of the Dalit Votes respectively. In2014 Loksabha Elections, BJP got 282 seats out of 543. It will, however, be a challenge for it to duplicate thisperformance in 2019. In some places, like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat and possibly Uttar Pradesh,
the party may not be able to hold as much ground in 2019 as it currently does. There is, however, some spacefor BJP to do better in other big states like Maharashtra, Bihar, Odisha and in West Bengal. Odisha andBengal have never seen BJP governments. However, recent local elections show that the BJP has replacedtheCongress as the opposition in Odisha and it has secured a foothold Bengal. Most of us thought Atal Bihari
Vajpayee would win a majority in 2004. Indeed, he was himself so confident of victory that he calledfor
elections six months early, only to lose. And so, it would be unwise to predict what will happen in next twoyears from now.